These are the 5 players I love and the 5 that I hate for the 2011 fantasy football season. All draft talk is based on a 10 man snake draft.
5 PLAYERS I LOVE
1) LeSean McCoy- My love of McCoy is purely for PPR leagues. McCoy had 78 receptions last year, which led all RBs. Vick loved dumping the ball off to McCoy last year and don't expect that to change. McCoy also posted over 1000 yards and 7 TDs on the ground last year. That, combined with his 592 yards and 2 TDs through the air make him a solid pickup for non-PPR leagues also. However, the reason I say I only love him for PPR leagues is because I think in non-PPR leagues, he's going right about where he should in the drafts. In non-PPR leagues, McCoy is going in the early 2nd to mid 2nd range on average, which is about right for him. In PPR leagues, don't be afraid to take him as early as the mid-1st round.
2) JerMichael Finley- Now this is not a hometown pick in any way. Granted, I'm a diehard Packers fan, but Finley is also going to be a fantasy monster this year. While he may be a little cocky, Finley was probably right when he said he is going to re-define the Tight End position this year. It's pretty simple if you look at it. Finley is too big for a safety to cover and way to fast for a linebacker to cover. You can count the number of guys in the NFL who can play Finley straight up on one hand. So you're probably thinking, "well, then he's going to face a lot of double teams." WRONG. The Packers are so loaded at the receiving position, there is no way you can consistently double team anyone. If the Packers go 5 wide with Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson and Finley, there is no way teams can afford to double team JerMichael. Don't be afraid to make Finley the 1st TE come off the board.
3) Brandon Marshall- I'll start this by saying, yes, Chad Henne is still the QB for Miami. But, the big change is that Dan Henning (AKA- the worst OC in football) is no longer directing the Miami offense. Brian Daboll has taken over as the new OC and has already installed a much more QB-friendly system. The offense is doing a better job at incorporating the talents that Marshall brings to the table into the offense. Brandon still managed to put up over 1000 yards last year, but only got into the end zone 3 times, which is what hurt his fantasy value. His yards may stay around where they were last year, but I'm predicting that his TDs get all the way up to about 9 or 10.
4) Jared Cook- Another TE on this list. TE is a more important position in fantasy football then most people think, because if you can get a steady 12-15 points out of your TE, that's a huge boost. Cook has been compared talent-wise to some very skilled players. Matt Hasselbeck is already raving about what he sees from Cook (http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2011/8/1/2309032/new-tennessee-titans-qb-matt-hasselbeck-is-very-high-on-jared-cook), and new OC Chris Palmer is already talking about how much he wants Cook to be involved in the offense. Cook is going, on average, outside of the top 20 TEs, but he has a chance to put up starter quality numbers.
5) Ryan Williams- Williams is a guy I love late in the draft. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has said that Beanie Wells will be the starter in Arizona, but I really haven't liked what I've seen from him so far. It may be lover's scorn (I made the mistake of drafting him as my #2 RB last year), but he just hasn't wowed me. Williams has some impressive physical attributes and is pretty good at catching the ball out of the backfield for those PPR leagues. Now, in no way am I saying take him as your #2 RB right now, but if you can grab him for your bench in the late rounds, the man has serious upside.
5 PLAYERS I HATE
1) Greg Jennings- It pains me to say this as a Packers fan, but I just don't see Greg Jennings coming anywhere near a repeat of last year. He'll should have no problem getting over 1000 yards for the 4th straight year, but don't expect him to come close to his 12 TD performance of last year. Not with JerMichael Finley as the #1 red zone target. Expect a 5-7 TD year out of Jennings, which isn't bad by any means, but isn't suited for where he's going in drafts. I've done 8 drafts so far (6 mock, 2 real) and he's been as high as the 5th receiver taken and has only gone as low as the 9th taken. I see Jennings in more of the 12-15 range
2) Beanie Wells- As you read above, I have Ryan Williams on my love list, so it only makes sense that I have the guy above him on the DC in my hate list. Like I said above, Coach Ken has declared Wells the starter for this year, but I still just have not been blown away by him. It only compounds the problem that a lot of you are once again (as I did last year), trusting Wells to be your #2 RB (which starts in most leagues). A lot of you think that because they now have Kolb, who should give the Cardinals a good passing game, that more running room will be freed up for Wells. That could be possible, but I still see Williams as a better fit for the Cardinals offense. I think they got a steal with him in the draft and it won't be long before he overtakes Wells for the starting role.
3) Reggie Wayne- Another great receiver on this list who will be spurned by a great team. There are just too many targets on Indy for Wayne to have a #1 WR type year, which is where you're all still drafting him. Austin Collie was having a huge year, and if he can stop getting concussions, should have another big one this year. Pierre Garcon has proved to be a very good receiver and of course, they still have Dallas Clark, who is probably Peyton Manning's favorite target. Wayne should still have a very solid year and #2 WR type numbers, but just not #1, where he's being drafted.
4) Eli Manning- the 1st QB appearance on either of these lists. Manning threw for over 4000 yards and 30 TDs last year. However, he also had 25 INTs. Manning lost 2 valuable targets, in Steve Smith (eagles) and Kevin Boss (raiders). I actually expect Hakeem Nicks to have a big year, but I don't think it will transfer over the Manning. Again, like Wayne, I think Manning will have a good year, but just not #1 QB type numbers, where he's being drafted. The Giants like to run the ball and when they got away from that last year, they won less. Expect them to get back to the ground game. I expect something like 3700 yards, 25 TDs and 19 INTs from Eli.
5) Chris Cooley- Chris Cooley is still a good TE in the football world and is a decent fantasy option, but I expect a step back this year. Donovan McNabb loves throwing to TEs and that made Cooley end up with good stats last year (despite only 3 TDs). Cooley has also only scored 6 TDs in the last 3 years, and that's where the points are. Rex Grossman is trying to prove he can still start in the NFL, but he's probably not going to put up big stats. Expect Cooley to have a decent year, but not a good one.
